Antes era a expectativa das eleições; agora é a expectativa do que pode acontecer com o País na administração do presidente eleito. Quando 2019 começar, haverá a expectativa dos primeiros 100 dias de governo. O Executivo vai compor com parte da Oposição? Como será o Ministério?
E o congresso eleito, que só toma posse em fevereiro, como irá se comportar? As reformas serão votadas ainda neste mandato? O dólar recua ou mantém a alta?
Os executivos estrangeiros da indústria automobilística costumam dizer que o Brasil é o grande teste para quem quer seguir carreira: se o dirigente sobreviver a uma temporada a filial brasileira, estará apto a assumir qualquer missão internacional, até mesmo a presidência da empresa, tamanha a inconstância da política econômica, o que exige um tremendo jogo de cintura dos executivos.
Um executivo no Brasil precisa ter flexibilidade, maleabilidade para enfrentar as inconstâncias do câmbio, economia instável, mudanças nas regras do jogo.
Não é exagero. A instabilidade na economia prejudica os investimentos e muda estratégias das empresas. Os resultados de vendas são muitas vezes surpreendentes, para cima ou para baixo. Depois de saltar de menos de um milhão de unidade por ano, na década de 1980, para quase quatro milhões em 2012, o mercado despencou para 1.986.186 em 2016 e no ano passado iniciou uma retomada, devendo fechar este ano em mais de 2,5 milhões de carros e crescimento de 14,5%.
Por isso é que dá pra entender, embora seja no mínimo curiosa, a previsão (se é que se pode chamar isso de previsão) do presidente da Anfavea, Antonio Megale, de um crescimento de dois dígitos em 2019.
Não há maior chute do que falar em “dois dígitos”. É uma total falta de previsão. Significa que o setor pode crescer de 10% a 99%. Haja imprecisão!
As previsões no Brasil são sempre desastrosas. Neste ano de 2018 até que houve uma boa dose de acerto: a previsão inicial era de crescimento de 11,3% nas vendas; vai dar cerca de 15%.
Mas em anos anteriores foram trágicas, o que é, com o se vê, compreensível diante da instabilidade econômica e jurídica.
Portanto, quem depende de informações precisas para planejar o seu negócio, saiba que não terá boas referências nas previsões do setor automobilístico.
Crescer de 10% a 99%?
Obrigado por nada, senhores fazedores de previsões. O pior é que eles vão acertar na mosca.
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