– Fenabrave mostra quadro sombrio do setor. Queda de 19,8% no semestre deve ser ampliada para 23% até o fim do ano
A Fenabrave confirmou hoje a queda de vendas de 19,8% no primeiro semestre deste ano, conforme adiantado pela agência AutoInforme no último dia 1.
Mas, as notícias ruins não param por aí. Depois do péssimo primeiro semestre, a entidade que representa os concessionários revisou a previsão de queda de vendas de carros e comerciais leves, que era de 18% para 23% até o final do ano.
Alarico Assumpção, presidente da Fenabrave, comentou a queda: “Em volume, o Brasil perderá em 2015 o que o México espera consumir de carros e comerciais leves”.
Segundo Tereza Fernandez, da Mendonça de Barros Associados e consultora da Fenabrave, existem alguns fatores cruciais para a entidade esperar uma queda de 23%: “falta de confiança no futuro e no governo, operação lava-jato, denúncias contra o PT, ajuste fiscal que não sai e está derrapando, clima político de salve-se quem puder, classe C sofrendo com a alta do desemprego e a restrição ao crédito”. Segundo ela, esse cenário também tira a confiança de novos investidores, o que dificulta ainda mais o crescimento do Brasil.
A consultora não explicou, no entanto, porque apenas as denúncias contra o PT influenciam no cenário de baixas nas vendas. As denúncias contra os demais partidos não teriam o mesmo efeito?
A Fenabrave anunciou a expectativa para o PIB em 2015: queda de 2,1%. Já a inflação deverá fica entre 9,2% e 10%, na visão da entidade. Para 2016 os revendedores de veículos esperam mais um ano difícil, com o PIB caindo 0,6%.
Isto é, a Fenabrave acredita que o Brasil só voltará a crescer em 2017 e em pequena escala: “A retomada do crescimento aparecerá só em 2017, ou no final de 2016. Mas, é bem mais provável que só daqui dois anos”, comentou Tereza Fernandez.
Alarico Assumpção, presidente da Fenabrave, comentou a situação das concessionárias e dos empregos na indústria:
“A projeção é que 5% dos pontos de vendas fechem até o fim do ano, aproximadamente 400 concessionárias, sendo que 250 já fecharam, mas temos algumas abrindo. As demissões já atingiram 12 mil pessoas e esse número pode chegar a 20 mil até o fim do ano”.
Outros setores da indústria também estão sofrendo com a crise, como o de caminhões, que já caiu 42,1% no acumulado do ano e tem previsão de fechar o ano com queda de 45%.
O setor de motos viu as vendas caírem 10,6% no acumulado do ano, mas é o que tem a melhor previsão para o final de 2015, ou a menos pior: queda de 9%.
Caio Bednarski
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